You hear these confessions over cocktails, at the school pickup line. The coffee shop. 

The prospect of Donald Trump being elected to a second presidential term has driven some moderate voters on both sides of the aisle to such panic that they’re pondering atypical voting practices, both nationwide and in Illinois. 

In New Hampshire, more than 4,000 Democratic voters switched party affiliation ahead of its Jan. 23 GOP primary in support of Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor considered by many to be a more moderate, palatable brand of conservative. 

It wasn’t a “bad bet,” the New York Times noted days before the election, for a state where about 40 percent of voters are considered to be independents. 

And, yet, it clearly wasn’t enough, with Trump defeating Haley, 54 percent to 43 percent.  For now, Illinois still remains in play, with a March 19 primary that has the possibility of having relevance in the national picture, should Haley stay in the race between then and now. In all, 28 Republican presidential primaries in various states and Washington, D.C. are scheduled to take place  between now and then, including 16 states on Super Tuesday, March 16. Along with Illinois, Arizona, Florida, Kansas and Ohio, are scheduled to hold March 19 GOP primaries. 

In Illinois, 13 Republican delegates to the GOP convention are statewide "at large" delegates. Another 51 are elected by the state's 17 congressional districts (3 apiece).

That contest is one that some analysts depict as without merit or motivation. 

Collin Corbett, a Republican strategist and pollster based in the Northwest suburbs, said in Illinois right now, “enthusiasm is so low that Trump is winning by default. If Haley could excite Republicans and even bring some traditional (conservatives) back in, she could create some  needed momentum. She’s going to have to do well in these next couple states and get people excited  in order to be relevant here.” 

Unlike New Hampshire, Illinois - along with New York and California - is considered one of the nation’s “big three” Democratic states. However, in recent years, variables have changed the state’s voting composition, Corbett noted. 

“A lot of people have been saying that the reason Republicans have been losing is  because of high turnout among females and minorities. That’s actually not true,” he said. “Turnout demographics favor Republicans. If this was a normal time, Republicans would be doing super well. But you look at this electorate, and so many Republicans, particularly in the collar counties,  have abandoned the party and are now voting Democrat. You can’t convince them to vote for Trump.” 

WTTW Chicago deemed the 2022 election an “unmitigated disaster” for the Illinois GOP, which lost every statewide race on the ballot, and saw its state legislative numbers shrink as well.

“I think there’s a Trump-effect hangover north of I-80 that probably had a lot of people that might have voted Republican voting Democrat instead,” former Illinois GOP Chair Pat  Brady told the outlet, a sentiment Corbett echoed nearly a year and a half later. 

“We’ve been seeing this trend over the last 3 years or so, but we really saw it rear its head in the 2022 elections,” Corbett said. “It really is that Trump has lost the dominance he held among center-right males.”

Data provided to the Center of Illinois Politics from the State Board of Elections shows that women made up 52 percent of voters in Illinois in the 2018 General Election, compared to  men at 45 percent. By 2022, that number was 53 percent female, 47 percent male, ISBE numbers show. 

Today, in a report of January 2024 active registered voters generated for the Center, 52.1 percent of voters, or 4.2 million, are women. While 45.9 percent, of 7.7 million are men, another 160,000 voters are considered by ISBE to be “unknown,” in terms of gender and 979 voters are registered as nonbinary. 

Nationally, in 2020, President Joe Biden made gains among voters in independent suburban areas that backed Hillary Clinton in 2016, the Pew Center for Research noted, with Trump losing ground among white suburban voters. At the same time, Trump grew support among rural voters, per the Pew Center for Research.

In Illinois in 2020, CNN tallied, Biden took 74 percent of the vote in Cook County (Trump 24 percent), 58 percent of the vote in DuPage County (Trump 40 percent),  56 percent of the vote in Kane County (Trump 41.7 percent), 61 percent of the vote in Lake County (Trump 37 percent), 50.2 percent of the vote in McHenry County (Trump 47.7 percent), and 53 percent of the vote in Will County (Trump 45 percent). 

Could that trend continue? Organizations, including the Illinois Women’s Institute for Leadership Training and Planned Parenthood have not only seen an infusion of interest in recent years, but a noticeable rise in interest from younger women earnest about getting involved, officials say. 

This year, “what we have seen is Illinois having certain protections in place, reproductive rights, assault weapons bans ,and different entities making efforts to curb those freedoms,” Illinois League of Women Voters President Becky Simon, of Naperville, said. “Those are going to continue to drive voters to the polls.” 

Many of them will likely be  women voters. January 2024 voter registration data shows that 54 percent of those registered to vote in Cook County are women compared to 46 percent men.  Slightly more than 52 percent of registered voters in DeKalb are female, 47.8 are male.  In DuPage, 48.5 percent of registered voters are women, 42 percent are men.  In Kane, 52.7 percent of voters are women, 47 percent men. In Kendall, 52.68 percent of voters are women, 47.3 percent are men.  In Lake, 52.5 percent are women, 47.4 percent are men. In McHenry, 52.4 percent of voters are women, 47.5 percent men.  In Will, 44.5 percent of registered voters are female, 39.7 percent are male. 

Still, as some motivated voters of all sexes will undoubtedly head to the polls, analysts predict others might voice a strong preference for a difference but ultimately stay home. 

“That’s the challenge for Haley in a state like Illinois,”  Corbett said. “The people who don’t want Trump are not going to be voting in the primary. There’s a huge portion of the electorate, including many softer Republicans who don’t want Trump but they’re unlikely to go vote in the actual primary election.”

Jim Marter, Vice President of the Illinois Republican County Chairmen's Association says Trump’s unconventional political appeal is what will drive turnout for him. 

“My sense is we as Republicans we’re gonna have a good year. I feel it’s going to be a little different because people are going to align with us on these issues. Immigration, Israel/Hamas, and inflation are going to make people vote differently this time around.” 

What isn’t changing, Corbett notes, is the “zero-sum game” that has become national and local politics. “Republicans and Democrats hate each other so much. That’s why our politics has devolved so much. People are focused on the personalities, they’re not paying attention to the policies.”

Eventually, Corbett said, “I think you will see an over-correction.” But is this the year? Probably not, but one never knows. “Things can turn on a weekend,” he said. 

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