Has Illinois gotten bluer? Really, not so much – A look back at  what Primary Election data shows

By Kerry Lester Kasper 

We regularly hear that voter turnout is “abysmal” and Illinois is a solidly blue Democratic state. But exactly how blue now, compared to 10, 20, 30 or even 60 years ago? The Center for Illinois Politics, with the help of the State Board of Elections, looked through the “way back machine” at primary vote totals in midterm and presidential primary election years between 1978 and 2022. 

In truth, despite regular headlines about voter apathy, Illinois primary voter turnout has not budged all that much over a 40-year stretch, though the numbers of Democrats and Republicans heading to the spring polls has fluctuated by more than 20 points depending on the given election year, data shows. 

“What drives overall turnout is having a race where Dems are motivated,” Illinois Board of Elections spokesman Matt Dietrich said, noting two of the three lowest overall turnouts are the only years where more GOP voters turned out than Democrats.

An analysis of the data shows presidential primary turnout typically hovers in the 40 percent range, while midterm election years have turnout ranging from 18 percent to 31 percent. 

Here’s a brief look through those races, the candidates, and key themes of those years, and how turnout compares to today:

Looking back to 1980, one of the closest years in turnout between the two parties – Democrats’ 53 percent to Republicans’ 47 – both parties had heated presidential primaries which played out in Illinois, as U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy challenged Jimmy Carter and the GOP had three candidates with Illinois connections – Ronald Reagan, who was born in downstate Tampico, ran against 12^th District Congressman Philip Crane and 16^th District Congressman John Anderson. 

“The Illinois primary gained national significance because of its early date in the nomination process and because it was the first test in a large, northern industrial state. Furthermore, because of the lessons of 1976, most major candidates were attempting to gain delegates in all states and could not bypass Illinois. In 1976, candidate Jimmy Carter did not neglect Illinois and won a significant number of delegates by running slates downstate,” Illinois Issues Magazine noted in its August 1980 edition. 

On the other hand, presidential primary years 2008 and 2016, where two Illinois candidates – Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton – were at the top of ticket – saw surges in the number of Democratic voters. 

Correspondingly, reverberations from four years of Donald Trump’s presidency brought a record percentage of Democrats to the polls in 2020. 

Conversely, in 2012, the Illinois Republican primary held a prominent place in the national picture, with Utah Sen. Mitt Romney emerging as victor over Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, and Newt Gingrich. 

While overall turnout remained low in 2014 and 2018, the Illinois governor’s race saw heavy turnout in 2014 from Republicans – 62 percent of the overall share -- as Bruce Rauner won a four-way race over former state Sens. Kirk Dillard, Bill Brady, and state Treasurer Dan Rutherford. 

In 2018, current Gov. J.B. Pritzker won a three-way primary against former state Sen. Daniel Biss and Kenilworth businessman Chris Kennedy, with Democrats making up 64 percent of overall turnout. 

 Look at 2008 and 2016 compared to 2012 and 2014. We see two of the three lowest overall turnouts. 2012 and 2014 are the only years where more GOP voters turned out than Dems.

What will the March 19^th Primary bring for the state’s two primary parties? 

Analysts predict overall turnout could be lower than typical – a combination of uncontested races and both President Biden and Donald Trump have already locked up their respective party nominations.

According to an analysis by Capitol News Illinois, 88 percent of judicial and state legislative primaries feature either one candidate or no one running at all – the single largest number of uncontested primaries in at least two decades.

‍

For detailed election data (1978-2022) click here

‍