Illinois Politics Preview: What to watch for in 2022
In Illinois, there’s never a shortage of big government and political stories. With 2022 being an election year, voters can expect public officials to pay more attention to politics than government in the coming 12 months.
That could mean pressing policy issues are put on the backburner to be negotiated in 2023 as politicians focus on staying in the game and getting re-elected. They’ll be campaigning with a global pandemic top of mind as COVID-19 remains with us for a third year.
Here are five topics to look out for in 2022:
1. Shortened General Assembly Session.
It’s supposed to wrap up by early April, except for the budget. This will give lawmakers more time to campaign when everyone is running on a new map following redistricting, but the Omicron COVID-19 variant might shorten up the in-person calendar.
The House and Senate are scheduled to be in most weeks from January through March, although session days set for Jan. 4 and Jan. 6 already are canceled and the following week’s session is likely to be canceled, legislative leaders said Thursday. Some committee hearings possibly could shift online, and both chambers are working on a compressed schedule with April 8 listed as an adjournment date. The prevailing view at the Capitol is that the Democrats who control the General Assembly will return at the end of May to pass a budget if a deal isn’t reached sooner. The change allows lawmakers facing primary challengers in newly redrawn districts to spend nearly three months campaigning ahead of the June 28, 2022 election.
This amounts to flipping the calendar, as it used to be that sessions in even-numbered years didn’t get going until after the traditional mid-March primary. It also might mean that with some uncertainty about running under the new House and Senate boundaries, it’ll be more difficult to get lawmakers to take tough votes with a primary still looming after session wraps up.
It’s not that state lawmakers won’t have issues to tackle. In addition to the usual array of attention-seeking, resume-building, re-election-ensuring legislation, the state’s unemployment insurance trust fund needs replenishing. The state is around $4.5 billion in arrears to the federal fund and Democrats have asked the federal government to delay interest charges on that money. Republicans suggest using federal stimulus money to repay what Illinois spent. Lawmakers and Gov. J.B. Pritzker likely will have to sort it out this spring, perhaps as part of the state budget.
During the early part of 2021, Democrats lauded the landmark criminal justice reform package they passed, which includes the end of cash bail in the coming years. Since then, much attention has been focused on the rising number of murders, shootings and carjackings in the city, sometimes in neighborhoods considered safe. And in long-suffering neighborhoods, the 2020 homicide rate was 26 times that of safer police districts. Murders in 2021 are expected to surpass 800 for the first time since the 1990s.
Given the stark numbers, human toll and Illinois Republican attempts to make crime a major 2022 campaign issue, including the possibility of barely-if-at-all veiled race-based appeals, the ruling Democrats in Springfield might try to pass legislation to cover their political flank ahead of the November 2022 general election. Members of the Legislative Black Caucus, who hold a significant amount of Democratic votes, would balk at a widespread rolling back of the reforms. Still, one progressive lawmaker has suggested stiffening penalties for child murderers. A crackdown on carjackings, which have spread to some suburbs, could emerge as well. The issue has even reached the General Assembly, as Democratic Sen. Kimberly Lightford of Maywood, the Illinois Senate majority leader, was carjacked just before Christmas in near west suburban Broadview.
2. COVID-19, Year 3.
The big question headed into the new year is whether the highly contagious Omicron variant will be a relative blip that peaks by February or causes disruption, illness and death well into 2022.
Cases continue to set new daily records in Illinois, though hospitalizations remain the key metric to watch. Even a small uptick in hospitalizations could overwhelm parts of Illinois’ hospital system that already was stretched thin by Delta cases. So far, the government is taking steps to deal with an expected Omicron surge but hasn’t reinstituted tight restrictions. Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s administration announced an expansion of testing and vaccination sites. Come Jan. 3, Chicago and Cook County will require proof of vaccination to enter restaurants, bars, gyms and indoor entertainment venues, though the level of enforcement remains unclear.
Pritzker is facing re-election and might be loath to impose a vaccine mandate or reimpose stay-at-home measures, which often were ignored in large parts of the state, especially after the initial wave of cases in spring 2020. During a Monday news conference, Pritzker preached getting vaccinated, including booster shots, and warned that beds might not be available for non-COVID illness should hospitals become overwhelmed.
Asked about putting restrictions on New Year’s Eve celebrations, Pritzker left it up to individuals to decide.
“What we’ve done is to make sure that people know that getting vaccinated and getting boosted and wearing your mask is the best thing you can do to keep yourself safe,” he said. “Omicron and Delta are coming to your party. So, you need to think twice about how many people will be gathered together, keeping social distance if you’re at a party, and if you can’t, leave.”
Another topic to watch is education, where students have lost ground academically and mental health has suffered despite the best efforts of teachers working under extremely trying conditions. Are there ways to reverse those trends? Meanwhile, local school boards have become ground zero in the culture wars and political battlegrounds over masks and in-person learning.
In the meantime, the nation heads toward at least a partial self-imposed shutdown. Thousands of holiday flights were canceled as airlines struggled with staff COVID cases. Pro basketball and hockey games, as well as college football bowl games, were put on hold or canceled. Grocery stores already set limits on toilet paper and paper towel purchases, anticipating potential hoarding and supply-chain problems as workers battle the virus. To try to head off some of that and keep people working, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reduced the recommended isolation period for those who get the virus (or are exposed) but don’t have symptoms from 10 days to five. The decision raised some eyebrows.
3. Campaigns and Elections.
As candidates compete for attention in this year’s state contests, the 2023 Chicago mayoral election also will start coming into focus.
The State: The Illinois primary election is in late June, cutting down by more than two months what sometimes seemed like an interminable general election campaign. In contested races, the Democratic and Republican nominees will have little more than four months to slug it out.
Topping the ticket (even if it’s the second race on the ballot behind a quiet-so-far U.S. Senate race) is the governor’s contest. Billionaire Pritzker enters the year as a seeming favorite to win a second term in a state as blue as Illinois with as much money as he can spend. There are wild cards, however. On the Democratic side, there’s a potential lack of enthusiasm should President Joe Biden fail to pass even a scaled-back version of the Build Back Better bill and frustration over inflation and the availability of goods, as well as the usual mid-term doldrums for the party that holds the White House.
Republicans are waiting to see who emerges as the party’s governor nominee and whether that candidate inspires billionaire hedge fund chief Ken Griffin to spend tens of millions of dollars backing them. Pritzker also had to spend much of his first term governing during a pandemic, which presented challenge after challenge as he tried to balance public health with the economy. The governor may be hoping he catches a vocal, pro-Donald Trump Republican who doesn’t accept the results of the 2020 presidential election and is anti-vaccine. Such a contrast could help Pritzker in the swing suburban counties, where Trump didn’t play well in 2016 or 2020.
While Republicans are expected to have a multi-candidate governor primary, Democrats will see high-profile action of their own on June 28. The congressional remap is likely to lead to a primary between Democratic U.S. Reps. Sean Casten and Marie Newman in the suburban 6th District as well as a possible multi-candidate primary for a newly drawn Latino-influence 3rd District centered on the Northwest Side. In the fall, Democrats are banking on turning their 13-5 congressional delegation margin into 14-3 (the state lost a seat following the 2020 Census), even if nationally Republicans are expected to take back the House and Senate.
In addition, Democrats have a hotly contested primary for Illinois secretary of state with longtime incumbent Jesse White retiring. In Cook County, women of color are challenging white incumbents for sheriff and assessor in the Democratic primary.
For both parties, all Illinois House and Senate seats are up for election under new maps that federal judges upheld on Dec. 30. Some Republican lawmakers face the prospect of being drawn into the same district and having to survive a primary contest. Democrats hoped their maps would minimize the number of toss-up seats for the fall.
The sleeper contests are a pair of Illinois Supreme Court seats, one centered in Lake County and another in DuPage County. If Republicans sweep, they would control the state’s high court 4-3. Griffin could pour some of his money into those November contests as well after his success in denying former Justice Thomas Kilbride retention in November 2020.
Democrats have an ace up their sleeve: Voters will get to weigh in on a state constitutional amendment to make unionizing a right in Illinois. That could spur organized labor to turn out the vote in an election year, even as Republicans hope it persuades business interests to open up their pocketbooks and provide campaign cash.
The City of Chicago: Even as the statewide campaigns are in full force, the February 2023 Chicago mayor's race will take shape by fall as challengers to Lori Lightfoot spend the year putting campaigns together.
Lightfoot easily won in a runoff in 2019 after making the cut in a very crowded field. She hasn’t officially said she’ll seek re-election (though Political Chicago expects her to), hasn’t been raising a ton of money yet and has faced numerous controversies. The last two mayors, Richard M. Daley and Rahm Emanuel, both announced they wouldn’t run again after Labor Day, setting off a scramble. As the year starts, there’s still much to be sorted out, though a challenger backed by the Chicago Teachers Union seems like a lock.
Beyond that, the City Council’s Black and Latino caucuses will continue trying to cut a deal on a new ward map. If they don’t, voters will get to decide in a referendum. Whatever the new boundaries are, Democratic Socialists could try to get even more members elected aldermen. Another interesting development to watch is what message campaign organizers use now that the old white ethnic establishment is mostly gone from the council.
4. Madigan investigation.
One of the biggest stories in Illinois government and politics in 2021 was the January ousting of Michael Madigan as House speaker after a run in power that stretched back to 1983.
It came amid a major federal corruption investigation into his government and political operation and a ComEd bribery scheme centered on jobs, contracts and payments to Madigan allies. And that still-unfolding probe remains a big story to follow in 2022.
Madigan has not been charged with wrongdoing, but is this the year that changes? That could depend on how the case of his onetime top confidant, ex-lawmaker and ComEd lobbyist Mike McClain of Quincy, plays out. McClain, two former ComEd executives and one top ComEd lobbyist, have pleaded not guilty to bribery conspiracy charges. A federal judge has set a September 2022 trial date, but that’s not etched in stone. There’s a mountain of documents and discs for attorneys to look at as pretrial maneuvering continues.
Attorneys for McClain and his co-defendants have said there was no attempt at bribery and the money to Madigan allies was simply lobbying that is not against the law. Still, authorities recorded McClain phone calls and obtained many of his emails. McClain acknowledged to WBEZ nearly two years ago that federal authorities had asked him to cooperate but he indicated that he wasn’t inclined “to betray” his longtime friend.
5. Changing Media Landscape.
There were big shakeups in Chicago media during 2021. Legacy media remained in decline, and there was more splintering, more partnerships and more charitable foundation money pouring in. How that all shakes out will be a story to watch in 2022.
Why does it matter? The quality and quantity of media coverage of Illinois government and politics can impact how well-informed the state’s residents are and what actions elected officials take and don’t take based on how voters react to that information.
Perhaps the biggest story on that front as the new year dawns is the proposed merger of the Chicago Sun-Times and Chicago Public Media (WBEZ 91.5-FM). Does it take place? How well will the two media organizations mesh? For the Sun-Times, it’s an opportunity to continue a strong, decades-long legacy after both labor and capital bankrolled losses in recent years. For the city’s public radio station, it’s a way for a new CEO who comes from the tech world to expand reach and influence. Both outlets have been tight-lipped about the merger since word first surfaced in late September. Charitable foundations could spend money to support the effort.
Beyond that, look for nonprofit news and investigative journalism sites to continue to rise, in part on the strength of grants from charitable foundations. The Better Government Association, which has a long history of publishing city and state government accountability stories, is expanding after an influx of $10 million from the McCormick Foundation. ProPublica’s Illinois bureau has been in a similar mode.
Some of that new funding emerged after no one stepped up last spring as Chicago Tribune journalists tried to find a local buyer with a sale to Alden Global Capital looming. (Full disclosure: I accepted a buyout in June after nearly 14 years as an editor on the Trib’s government and politics and investigative teams.) That exodus has led to former star columnists Eric Zorn and John Kass, who both write about state and city politics, attempting to make a go of it through subscriptions.
Others who paved the way on the subscription and newsletter model continue in 2022, including Capitolfax.com, a website that has long served as the virtual office water cooler to discuss state politics; Politico Illinois, which has a sponsored morning newsletter and puts on events; Axios, which recently expanded into Illinois with a newsletter; and The Illinoize, a state government and politics-focused newsletter started by a former radio reporter turned Republican operative.
Partnerships have bloomed in recent years and the public can expect more of them in 2022. Injustice Watch announced a partnership with the Tribune and has teamed up with the Better Government Association looking at the Cook County court system and put on policy programming with the Adlai Stevenson Center on Democracy. Block Club Chicago both partners with other outlets on government investigative pieces and republishes investigative work. And 19 newsrooms are taking part in a look at how COVID-19 has led to a rethinking of solutions to numerous public policy issues.
Recent reports
Illinois’ top issues
The Center for Illinois Politics is dedicated to providing you with clear, fact-based, non-partisan information on our state’s biggest issues.
IL Campaign Cash
Take a streamlined spin behind the scenes through Illinois’ biggest and most impactful campaign funds.
Illinois’ top issues
With elections behind us, it’s time to get down to business. The Center for Illinois Politics your resource for non-partisan information on our state’s biggest issues: